Why the stock market’s bubble hasn’t really burst yet
When markets crash sharply, as they did earlier this year, it can be a mistake to assume that as soon as the falls peter out, the market will then naturally recover.
Sure, this sometimes happens. The crash of 87, the global financial crisis, and COVID are all examples where the market went into freefall fall once, more or less, before recovering.
But here’s the thing. Just because the market has sold off and since recovered some, that’s no guarantee the market is in recovery mode. Markets, sectors and individual stocks can go down, stabilise, then go down again.
While picking the bottom might be a mug’s game, you’re not going to go into high gear and invest if you think there’s further broad based losses on the way.
This is where today’s guest comes in. Dr Philipp Hofflin, Portfolio Manager at Lazard Asset Management, is an expert in market bubbles and what happens after them. And it’s not as cut and dry as you might think.
In this episode, Phil discusses:
- his learnings from Jackson Hole and where we are in the rate cycle;
- the difference between Australia and the US when it comes to interest rate sensitivity;
- why some stocks are now attractive while others have further to fall;
- how he values the energy sector, and
- what sectors and stocks are attractively priced.
It’s been a crazy year for virtually every asset class. Commodities have been particularly interesting, though, because earlier this year, when most everything was selling off, commodities went on a bull run!
It’s a highly volatile sector, exposed t...
It’s been a crazy year for virtually every asset class. Commodities have been particularly interesting, though, because earlier this year, when just about everything was selling off, commodities went on a bull run. It’s a highly volatile sector, expo...
When I ask most fund managers about today's operating environment, they almost invariably respond with words like 'difficult', 'complex', or 'bearish'.
And you can't blame them. The age of cheap money and growth at any cost is over. They're not defe...
Last week, London-based economist and founder of Longview Economics Chris Watling walked into a pub and ordered three pints of beer. The barman poured the pints and promptly asked Watling for £30. There was a pause, as the two made eye contact before...
The old adage that "past performance is not an indicator of future returns" is possibly more relevant in today's market than it's ever been.
When the market is driven by momentum, as it has been through the past decade, piling onto winners has paid ...
It's not a stretch to call the last twelve months in markets a regime change. Inflation, rates, valuations, liquidity; everything has been turned on its head.
While today's conditions may be unique in makeup, they're not new in isolation. Each of th...
The world is opening, but not to calm and stability.
Rather, COVID has left a trail of destruction. And I'm not talking about the health implications. The pandemic has left economies and markets rattled by supply chain problems, inflation, and rate ...
Investment management can be a brutal business. When you're talking small caps, the brutality is amplified orders of magnitude.
Between March 20 and September 3 last year, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index sky-rocketed 44.38%. That's the kind of perfor...
Fixed income has had a torrid time of it the last year – in fact, by some measures it’s been the worst year on record – with US treasuries losing about a tenth of their value.
Since the beginning of this year, global bonds have recorded their worst ...