Why the stock market’s bubble hasn’t really burst yet

Why the stock market’s bubble hasn’t really burst yet

When markets crash sharply, as they did earlier this year, it can be a mistake to assume that as soon as the falls peter out, the market will then naturally recover. 

Sure, this sometimes happens. The crash of 87, the global financial crisis, and COVID are all examples where the market went into freefall fall once, more or less, before recovering. 

But here’s the thing. Just because the market has sold off and since recovered some, that’s no guarantee the market is in recovery mode. Markets, sectors and individual stocks can go down, stabilise, then go down again.

While picking the bottom might be a mug’s game, you’re not going to go into high gear and invest if you think there’s further broad based losses on the way. 

This is where today’s guest comes in. Dr Philipp Hofflin, Portfolio Manager at Lazard Asset Management, is an expert in market bubbles and what happens after them. And it’s not as cut and dry as you might think.   

In this episode, Phil discusses: 

  • his learnings from Jackson Hole and where we are in the rate cycle;
  • the difference between Australia and the US when it comes to interest rate sensitivity;
  • why some stocks are now attractive while others have further to fall;
  • how he values the energy sector, and 
  • what sectors and stocks are attractively priced.  

Show More

Backward
Play
Forward
1x speed
  • 0.5
  • 1
  • 1.5
  • 2
Other episodes
The lead indicator for Dion Hershan’s best trades (and two high quality stocks for the ”slow grind” ahead)

The lead indicator for Dion Hershan’s best trades (and two high quality stocks for the ”slow grind” ahead)

Two years ago, on a trip to Perth, Yarra Capita’s Dion Hershan was pitched the case for lithium stocks by his Uber driver. Hershan says it was a cliche moment and a classic example of a ‘ringing the bell’ sign. On the flip side, there are moments whe...

165 downloads Rules of Investing Dec 20, 2023
41m
Ben Griffiths’ small cap playbook as animal spirits awaken

Ben Griffiths’ small cap playbook as animal spirits awaken

The penny has dropped and thanks to a three-letter word from the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision ("any"), small caps both in the US and in Australia have started to rocket out of a long slumber. For most of the last 18 months, small c...

164 downloads Rules of Investing Dec 14, 2023
44m
2 killer growth stocks (and why culture is key to successful small caps)

2 killer growth stocks (and why culture is key to successful small caps)

Culture is not something that immediately springs to mind when assessing a company and its prospects for the future.
More often than not, we investors are scouring profit and loss statements, comparing financial ratios and (if we have the time and sk...

414 downloads Rules of Investing Nov 17, 2023
36m
Trailer: Qiao Ma, Munro Partners

Trailer: Qiao Ma, Munro Partners

Qiao Ma has had an extensive career in funds management including stops in New York working for hedge fund Jericho Capital and more recently Cooper Investors in Melbourne.
 
Earlier this year, Qiao joined Munro Partners, where it was recen...

318 downloads Rules of Investing Nov 16, 2023
2m
We are in the midst of a social, economic, financial and political crisis

We are in the midst of a social, economic, financial and political crisis

From geopolitics to fiscal policy, commodities to equities, this week's featured guest on The Rules of Investing has some high-conviction views on a whole range of subjects. 
For more than 40 years, Donald Amstad traded his way through the highs and ...

260 downloads Rules of Investing Nov 10, 2023
31m
Invest in what you know, avoid what you don’t: Lessons from a Hall of Fame fund manager

Invest in what you know, avoid what you don’t: Lessons from a Hall of Fame fund manager

Despite all of his success, Morry Waked has remained relatively under the radar. He’s not one to boast of his achievements, and he’s very rarely fronted the media.
At Livewire, we dedicate ourselves to finding the best fund managers in Australia - an...

262 downloads Rules of Investing Oct 27, 2023
29m
Emma Fisher: Why it pays to be bullish (and the most outstanding idea on the ASX today)

Emma Fisher: Why it pays to be bullish (and the most outstanding idea on the ASX today)

The times when a company is dominating headlines (for all the wrong reasons) are the best time to buy. 
Take Medibank Private (ASX: MPL), for example, which you may remember, was embroiled in a data breach in October 2022. 
On the news, the stock's s...

417 downloads Rules of Investing Oct 05, 2023
48m
Matthew Kidman: Get ready to run with the bulls

Matthew Kidman: Get ready to run with the bulls

Matthew Kidman is a well-known entity to readers of Livewire, as host of Success and More Interesting Stuff, Buy Hold Sell, and most recently, Livewire Live.
Finally, we got him in the hot seat to run us through his own journey into funds management,...

452 downloads Rules of Investing Sep 28, 2023
1h 9m
Hedge fund managers never name their shorts. This one does…

Hedge fund managers never name their shorts. This one does…

Short sellers have had a tough time of it over the past decade. The era of free money lifted all boats, including companies that would perhaps otherwise be candidates for short selling. 
Today's market is radically different. Central banks have lifte...

273 downloads Rules of Investing Sep 22, 2023
46m
Suggested Stories

Who would have guessed laws required companies to request...

DisinterestedSep 25, 2022
0 mins read

The question of whether abortion should be legal has been...

DanielJun 26, 2022
4 mins read

Four-time major winner Brooks Koepka has also left the PG...

sportislife15Jun 26, 2022
0 mins read

The subsidisation of unreliable “renewable” power is why ...

DisinterestedJun 19, 2022
0 mins read

LIV Golf is off to a good start, whatever the PGA Tour an...

sportislife15Jun 11, 2022
4 mins read

All governments eventually lose power, but the Liberal Pa...

DanielMay 29, 2022
4 mins read