Behind the Memo: Bull Market Rhymes
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Selling Out
Howard Marks’s latest memo considers one of investing’s most fundamental questions: when to sell. Howard explains that it’s foolish to sell because prices are up and because they’re down – and why, most of the time, staying invested is ultimately “the most important thing.” You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/selling-out). The memo is read by […]
The Rewind: Uncertainty
Howard reflects on this memo originally published on May 11, 2020. Writing near the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis, he discusses the power of saying “I don’t know” and the danger of confirmation bias. Drawing on the insights of thinkers from Voltaire to Albert Einstein, Howard explains why he believes having intellectual humility is essential […]
The Winds of Change
The last 20 months have taught us to question everything. What is the future of work? Can American democracy survive? Will Baby Boomers keep consuming more than their fair share? And what comes after “trillion”? Howard Marks’s latest memo examines paradigm shifts that could reshape the economy, markets and the world for many years to come. (November 23, 2021) […]
The Rewind: What Does The Market Know?
Howard reflects on this memo originally published on January 19, 2016. In the second episode of a two-part series, he discusses the problems with taking advice from the market. But he also draws on insights from his latest memo, Thinking About Macro, to consider what it means when the market does get it right.
The Rewind: On The Couch
Howard reflects on this memo originally published on January 14, 2016. In the first of a two-part series, he analyzes investors’ irrationality and discusses why things that are obvious in investing are usually wrong. You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/on-the-couch.pdf). The memo is read by LJ Ganser.
The Rewind: Us and Them
Howard reflects on this memo originally published on May 7, 2004. In a discussion that namechecks both psychologist Amos Tversky and tennis great Pete Sampras, Howard explains why too much confidence can be a dangerous thing. You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2004-05-07-us-and-them.pdf). The memo is read by LJ Ganser.
Thinking About Macro
Howard Marks doesn’t make bets on economic predictions. That’s especially true now when the biggest wildcard is inflation – a phenomenon no one fully understands. But just because something is unknowable doesn’t mean it’s unimportant. That’s why Howard has devoted his latest memo to a topic he largely disavows: macro forecasting. (July 29, 2021) You can read the […]
The Rewind: It Is What It Is
Howard reflects on this memo originally published on March 27, 2006. In this wide-ranging discussion, he weaves together the Japanese concept of mujo, probability theory and the Super Bowl to suggest investors should spend less time looking for silver bullets and more time cultivating humility. You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2006-03-27-it-is-what-it-is.pdf?sfvrsn=87bc0f65_2). The memo is […]
The Rewind: Dare to Be Great II
Howard reflects on this memo originally published on April 8, 2014. In the second episode of a two-part series, he asks whether investors are willing to do what is necessary in order to be great – including being willing to look wrong. You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2014-04-08-dare-to-be-great-ii.pdf?sfvrsn=44b60f65_2). The memo is read by LJ […]
